Levers, Knobs, and Switches

Over the past decade or so, specifically in the last 5 years, our industry has seen some pretty good times. Never in any of our career days did we have a mortgage broker come into a classroom that said they make as much – if not more than a general surgeon, and do it while wearing pajama bottoms on a zoom call.

But, I find that the more brokers, agents, and mortgage industry people I speak with, the more I get a sense that we have really missed what has happened in this business. Unfortunately a lot of agents actually think that they are worth 500K a year. A lot of agents think they should be driving G wagons, living on the water, have a second or third home, all while completing almost zero post secondary education.

Now that I have pissed off a lot of the industry, lets all clam down and take a look at what I mean here.

The thing I find most striking about our industry over the last few years is that when I speak with a lot of agents, they truly believe that they are successful because of who they are. Now please don’t misunderstand what I am saying, but there has been a very large tailwind at our backs for the last 15 or so years – the government. But somehow a lot of agents and brokers seem to think that they are truly that good that they deserve to make 500K a year. I am not here to say that you AREN’T worth 500K a year, but when we look at the professions that earn that kind of money – mortgage broker doesn’t really pop up high on the list on Family Feud.

But, what a lot of people really miss is that we have been able to be so successful in our business because of a lot of tailwinds that have really blow in our favour. Almost every single policy that the government has put in place – or not put in place, has been bullish for housing, and by default bullish for our business. Now, the government could do all of this because housing was really the only thing that was moving and contributing to the Canadian economy – so it made sense. But as the political winds shift, and new problems arise from the South, politicians and governments will have to work a completely different set of levers, knobs and switches going forward.

Politicians of yester year knew that so long as house prices were going up, Canadian’s would be happy. Rising equity gives way to the wealth effect – people feel wealthy so they spend more. The more people spend – the more things are consumed which leads to businesses hiring. More employed people means more housing, which begets higher house prices, and round and round we go. Politicians really had an easy job for the last 15 years or so. All they had to do was NOT move any levers, switches or knobs that would even remotely burst the housing bubble. Since they didn’t really have to work much on that portfolio, the government let the operator of the levers, knobs and switches move around to other portfolio’s like social justice, the environment, and immigration. Governments know that with the flip of a switch they can completely alter the outcome of a business, an entire industry or a human life.

If I use electric cars as an example, the Canadian and Provincial governments have thrown hundreds of billions in commitments behind something that probably won’t even come to fruition on the scale that has been promised. By the time half of these stupid battery plants open the product will be obsolete. However, optics being what they are, the governments were able to pull on some levers to steer things the direction they wanted them to go. When all is said and done, I prognosticate that Federal, Provincial and Municipal governments will lose well over 100B + interest for the next 1000 years from the EV programs. Plants will be built that will never open. Infrastructure will be put in place that will never be used, or better yet under used, and promised jobs will never materialize.

What I think a lot of people in our industry fail to realize is that for years and years, the government benefited from pulling the levers, knobs and switches to benefit the industry. Everyone was happy, and billions of dollars of land transfer tax, GST, PST, development fees, the list goes on and on were paid into all levels of government to keep the grift and bloat going along. So long as Canadian’s made 100K a year on their home – no one asked for accountability, nor an accounting. Why risk rocking the boat when you home just kept going up and up, and you could refinance it out to make ends meet? Asking for anything would be akin to the kid in class that asked the teacher for extra homework.

Well, here we are in 2025, and I think we all need to be aware that government levers, knobs and switches are going to be busy controlling some other problems going on, and real estate will probably fall by the wayside, or at least get overlooked quite a bit. With the new administration to the South, all government levers, knobs and switches are going to be focused on keeping Canada from feeling the brunt of tariffs that will be incoming shortly. Governments won’t have the ability to prop up, or keep afloat the real estate industry as they will be busy keeping unemployment down, keeping tariffs from hitting pocketbooks as much as possible, all while fending off a constant trolling by DJT. What does Canadian real estate do without the government looking out for it every day?

Unfortunately a lot of agents and brokers aren’t really aware that they had the tailwind, and think the massive income they make is due 100% to their exceptional talents. Maybe it was, but most likely it was due to your secret partner – the government. That magical mystical creature in the background that was secretly tipping the scales in your favour. Justice is supposed to be blind, but the government sure isn’t, and they were carefully and methodically flipping, pushing and pulling all the right things at the right time to ensure the Canadian bull market in real estate continued. Sure, from time to time they made it appear that they were ‘cracking down’, but we all knew it was bull shit. Do you think the government couldn’t have stopped mortgage fraud in about 1 month if they wanted to? Of course they could. They could simply pull a lever, and make it happen, but they chose not to. Why risk upsetting the applecart?

I am really waiting to see what 2025 looks like without the silent partner involved. Governments at the Municipal, Provincial, and
Federal level will be a little busy over the next few months trying to simply tread water, hoping and praying that tariffs will be reduced, short lived, or less than feared. They are busy trying to keep Quebec and Alberta from fighting. They are worried about the Ontario manufacturing sector from being wiped out. They are scrambling to actually promote a Made in Canada approach after basically ignoring everything in the Canadian economy for a decade. There is a lot of levers, knobs and switches to pull to make those things work, so real estate will have to take a back seat for now.

But, my main question, or somewhat of a challenge if you want to view it that way is: What levers knobs and switches can you pull, push or flip in your own business to change things for the better? If someone else isn’t going to be pulling, pushing or flipping them on your behalf, what can you do to drive your business higher in 2025? So many people I speak with lately will sit around, bitch moan and bellyache about the state of the business, but they won’t go out and change it. Be the lever puller in your business and you might just be amazed how quickly things can change at the flick of a switch.