Ryan Sims insights, thoughts, and analysis

Category: Uncategorized

  • Sacrosanct

    We have all been waiting anxiously for inflation to fall to the BOC’s target of 2% for the last couple of years. People watch the monthly inflation releases more than I have ever seen in my entire career. But what if 2% doesn’t get the job done? The UK reported their inflation data this morning,…

  • Statistically Incorrect

    I love statistics!! I really do. But what also makes me nervous is how often people use statistics as their only weapon of argument. Statistics are all too often used to either prove a point, or disprove a point – irregardless of the actual facts. I feel that far too many people in our business…

  • Differential

    Differential can mean many different ( no pun intended ) things. Car guys in the group finally think I am writing something for them. While I hate to burst anyone’s bubble, this is not about diff’s on a car. Oddly enough, diff rhymes with Tiff, but I digress.. Today I want to look at how…

  • Down is the new up, up is the new down

    This morning saw yet another release of yet another report that the markets watch for inflation data. The US wholesale price report was out, and while expectations had been for a .1% increase, the index actually fell by .2%. The wholesale pricing report is a gauge of prices that producers get for their goods and…

  • Dog Wagging the Tail, or Tail Wagging The Dog?

    This morning saw the release on the US inflation report, and it came in under expectations. US inflation edged up .2% month over month, and 3.4% YOY, both missing market expectations by.1%. Ironically, it was 1 week ago today we had the BOC announce, at about this time they were cutting rates by 25 bps.…

  • What A Difference A Week ( Doesn’t ) Make

    A week ago, the only thing people wanted to talk about was the BOC rate cut. Then, on Wednesday and Thursday, all people wanted to talk about is how the 5 year bond and the CAD currency. Interestingly enough, even though the BOC cut the overnight rate last week, the 5 year Canadian bond is…

  • Revising the Revision

    I can always tell when people are bothered by something because I get a lot of calls, emails and messages on certain topics. Lately, the topic seems to be the employment report, and more importantly the revisions to the employment report. The tinfoil hat brigade seems to be out in full force lately with this…

  • Drop It Like It’s Hot – Revised

    Wow, when you receive incorrect data from your data feed, it causes you to put out an incorrect reading. It appears that Reuters data feed had the wrong employment numbers for Canada!!! US jobs remain the same, but Canada’s numbers were wrong. Reuters has now corrected the data, but I sent my post long before…

  • Figures Never Lie

    Well, we all know about todays rate cut. First and foremost, I will acknowledge that I got it wrong. I really thought Tiff and Co. would hold. I guess my coin flipping guesses are not that good. I always said there were reasons both for and against cutting rates, but it seems that the reasons…

  • Tik Tok Gonna Be Lit!!!

    Well, there you have it – Tiff has dropped rates by 25 bps!!!. Should he have? No, but he caved to political pressure and did it anyways. Oh well, this is going to be a fantastic soul crushing experience coming. The 1 year bond market had dropped 20 bps from the end of May leading…